Saturday, December 29, 2012

School Shootings: What Are The Odds, Part II

Although the chances of a school shooting happening at your
child's school next year is very small, the chances of a school
shooting happening somewhere in the US is very high.
Yesterday, I posted on the odds of a school shooting happening at a particular US school in 2013. Today, I thought I would report on the odds of a school shooting happening anywhere in the US in 2013.

In the last 13 years, there have only been two years with absolutely no school shooting incidents. Those years were 2004 and 2009. In every other year, there was at least one school shooting incident somewhere in the US. So, taking this data, one might argue the odds of a school shooting incident taking place in the US is 2:13, or 1:6.5.

That translates to an 85% chance of at least one school shooting taking place somewhere in the US in 2013.

Thanks for reading-- Max Wachtel, Ph.D.


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