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Tuesday, December 17, 2013

VIDEO: School Shootings: What Are The Odds?


In December of 2012, after the Newtown school shooting, I wrote a series of blog posts outlining the odds of a school shooting occurring in the US in any given year. In those posts, I calculated the odds of a shooting happening anywhere in the US, and I also calculated the odds of a shooting happening at a particular school.

The short version of the blog posts: It is almost a guarantee that at least one school shooting will take place in the US in any given year. In fact, the average number of school shootings per year in the US is just over 2.5. But, the odds of a shooting happening at your child's school are extremely low. If your child is in elementary school, the odds are about 1 in 141,000. If your child is in high school, the odds are still low: about 1 in 21,000.

Here are links to the 2012 blog posts:

School Shootings: What Are The Odds?
School Shootings: What Are The Odds, Part II?
School Shootings: What Are The Odds, Part III?

Yesterday, I spoke with 9 News about these numbers. Here is the video:


click here if you do not see the video above.

It is important to remember it is extremely likely your child will never experience a school shooting. However, it is also extremely likely somebody's child will experience a shooting in a school. Given the population of the United States, the number of public and private schools around the country, and the relative rarity of shootings in schools, do you think 2.5 shootings per year is an acceptable level of risk for our nation's kids?

Thanks for reading-- Max Wachtel, Ph.D.
www.CherryCreekPsychology.com
www.Twitter.com/mwachtel
www.Facebook.com/drmaxwachtel

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